Is "Crunch Time" coming?

Some time ago I wrote that there was going to be a "collision of values" between the cost of lumber and value that people would pay for it. That time is rapidly approaching. It seems that the buying public is not in the mood for any price increases yet, there has to be price increases at the supply end as supply will dry up. More for some than for others but there can be no doubt that landowners have reached a decision point where they are less willing to sell their wood lots for less and are deciding to set on the sidelines to see what will happen. Loggers are starved out, broke and just tired of working for less than nothing. Banks are, of course, not being real interested in financing new production without some reasonable guarantees of profitability. Is it there?

Producers are reluctant to buy anything that they don't already have sold and I think that we are going to enter some more turbulent times when the buying public has to pay more for things that they have been able to get at a much reduced price. Will this result in back orders? Substitutions? Elimination? What are your thoughts?